The article presents 1645 as a moment when Confederate military gains and Catholic cultural confidence coexisted with political uncertainty. Duncannon improved control of Waterford Harbour, yet naval power protected rival ports, while Glamorgan’s secret concessions and Rinuccini’s arrival exposed approaches to securing Catholic interests. This suggests that victory on the ground did not determine the terms of peace, especially when religious guarantees, royal necessity and international support pulled policy in different directions. How far did Rinuccini’s resources and insistence on enforceable guarantees strengthen the Confederation’s negotiating position, and how far did they make a settlement with Charles I more difficult?